Whitmire leading Jackson Lee, new poll shows

State Sen. John Whitmire maintains a 7 percentage point lead over U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in the Houston mayoral race, with a fifth of likely voters having yet to make up their minds just weeks before the December runoff, the latest poll by SurveyUSA shows.

Researchers interviewed 805 likely Houston voters from Nov. 13 to 18 and found that 42% of the respondents supported Whitmire and 35% backed Jackson Lee. These figures are nearly identical to their vote shares in the general election, where Whitmire had 42.5% and Jackson Lee 35.6%. The two advanced to the Dec. 9 runoff because neither garnered a majority of votes.

Twenty-two percent of likely voters remain undecided, which is not unusual in city elections typically marked by low turnout, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor and co-author of the poll. 

While the undecided electorate represents an opportunity for Jackson Lee to potentially overtake Whitmire’s lead, convincing these voters to support her could be a “Herculean task” given the limited time frame, Rottinghaus said. In past Houston mayoral contests, the first-place finisher in the general election has won every runoff since 1977. 

Among all likely voters, the ones most certain to cast a ballot in the runoff lean toward Whitmire, whereas those less sure about voting in December appear to favor Jackson Lee. For the congresswoman to secure a victory, her path hinges on quickly energizing these less committed voters, according to Rottinghaus.

“It’s not completely insurmountable, but it is really a challenge in a municipal election when you’ve got to juice up turnout, and that’s always a hard thing to do,” he said.

In line with previous survey results, the latest poll reveals Houston’s voter bases are markedly divided along demographic lines.

Whitmire is projected to have a 43 percentage point advantage among white voters (63% to 20%) and a 20-point lead among Latino voters (43% to 23%). Jackson Lee, on the other hand, holds a strong lead among Black voters (63% to 15%).

More male likely voters said they would cast their ballot for Whitmire (51% to 34%), while women voters are evenly split between the two contestants (35% to 35%). 

Though Houston city elections are nonpartisan, voters’ party affiliations continue to play a notable role in the latest poll: Whitmire garnered 68% of Republican support to Jackson Lee’s 12%, while Democrats backed Jackson Lee by 55% to Whitmire’s 25%.

Despite both candidates being established figures in Houston’s Democratic scene, respondents reported disparate perceptions of their ideological stances: Over half labeled Jackson Lee as “liberal” or “extremely liberal,” whereas a majority considered Whitmire “moderate” or “conservative.”

Former mayoral candidate Jack Christie, a Republican who secured 7% of the vote in November, recently endorsed Whitmire. Rottinghaus suggested this could potentially nudge more conservative voters toward Whitmire, especially those who were undecided.

Of all voter groups, young women were most significantly affected by the recent leak of a recording allegedly featuring Jackson Lee berating a staffer, the poll shows. Overall, most said the incident had little to no impact on how they would vote in the runoff.

Rottinghaus said he does not expect any potential new revelation in the coming weeks to change the candidates’ vote share by more than a few percentage points.

“It would have to be something pretty significant that would shift the electorate, and it would have to be one that does it among certain constituencies,” he said.

Poll respondents said they would like the next mayor to focus on reducing crime, improving city infrastructure and making housing more affordable. Notably, voters who named public safety as their top priority favored Whitmire 60% to 22%, while those who wanted to prioritize addressing homelessness backed Jackson Lee 56% to 26%.

Given their disparate voter bases, Rottinghaus said, ultimately it will come down to who turns out Dec. 9: “It still looks favorable for Whitmire, but some of these internal dynamics make it potentially a closer race than the top number indicates.”