Former President Donald Trump is leading the GOP primary in the Golden State, according to a new poll, which could give him a massive advantage for one of the largest swathes of delegates for the Republican National Convention.
A poll from the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies released on Monday shows Trump leading the Republican primary field in California with 66%, followed by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with 11%, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) with 8%.
Trump’s massive lead in the survey conducted earlier this month shows a net gain of 37% from when the pollster asked likely Republican voters who their preferred GOP presidential candidate was in February 2023, when DeSantis led Trump 37%-29%.
If Trump is able to sustain the lead or stay within 15% of what the pollster shows, he will win all of the California GOP’s 169 delegates. The state party changed the rules on how it allocates delegates for presidential nomination at the RNC.
The new procedure, adopted in July 2023, allows for a candidate to receive all of the delegates at stake if they receive more than 50% of the primary vote. If no candidate receives more than 50%, then delegates will be allocated proportionately among the candidates.
California has been teeing up a bigger role in the presidential primary process recently, moving its primary from June in 2016 to Super Tuesday for 2020 and 2024, along with the California GOP’s rule change to make it winner-take-all.
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The California presidential primary for both Republicans and Democrats will be held on March 5 — Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday will see primaries in 15 states for the GOP, with California’s 169 delegates being the largest prize.
Trump is favored to win in all of the early primary states before Super Tuesday, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan, but momentum could swing in favor of other candidates, such as Haley or DeSantis, if they have a strong showing in the early contests.
