Sunday, June 19, 2022
President Joe Biden PHOTO: White House
Well, with less than five months now until the November election, we are seeing the primary season getting kick-started again. As always, there are convergent dynamics happening and nothing is guaranteed. Many of my Republican friends now assume their party will retake control of both the House and Senate in November. I remind them not to assume you’ll win an election, as Hillary Clinton mistakenly did. You’ve got to get out there and fight for it! Let’s “brunch” on that this week.
“Follow the Money” – The primary surge doesn’t come at the best time for the party in power, with inflation now at a 41-year high of 8.6 percent, and average gas prices now exceeding five dollars per gallon nationwide. The stock markets took their worst tumble in two decades, and the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates by .75 percent on Wednesday, hoping to stave off a recession. Folks, politically speaking, this is a five-alarm fire! In modern times Presidents Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 all lost reelection bids when the economy tanked. The party in power also lost control of the House and/or Senate in 1980, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014, over similar economic worries. President Biden’s approval rating stands at just 41 percent, this is not a good indicator for either the 2022 midterm elections, or the 2024 presidential election.
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“Drill Baby, Drill!” – In what looks like an about-face, President Biden on Wednesday encouraged the seven largest oil companies in the U.S. to start producing more gasoline. Biden, who focused on the phase-out of fossil fuels in his campaign and administration is now encouraging more domestic production. The progressive left, (i.e., the most liberal flank of his own party), is not going to like this.
“Is January 6, 2021, Ancient History?” – Before I get beat up (from either side), let me say the January 6th Capitol riots were one of the ten worst domestic attacks in American history. It was shameful, appalling, and embarrassing to democracy. When the first prime-time Congressional hearing was held last week, I was riveted. But this week, one hearing was canceled, and the rest of the coverage has been relegated to daytime C-SPAN type-hours, when few are watching, and even fewer care. Call me cynical, but was the big headline this week really that Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani appeared “inebriated” at a White House meeting? Unless the panel recommends criminal charges for former President Trump and his aides, this thing is toast.
“The Mace Race Faceoff” – Nevada, Maine, North Dakota, and Texas all held primaries this past week, but nowhere was it more dramatic than in South Carolina. Rep. Nancy Mace (R) South Carolina was a Trump campaign aide in 2016. So, she ran for Congress in 2020 with his blessing and won. But Mace drew the ire of Trump when she chastised him for the January 6th capitol riot. So, Trump fired back this year, endorsing Mace’s opponent and 2020 election denier Katie Arrington instead. It got more complicated when former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina, endorsed Mace. Haley is a former Trump cabinet member who could challenge him for the presidential nomination in 2024. Mace beat Arrington, 53 to 45 percent.
“Is the Right Rice, Wrong?” – Rep. Tom Rice (R) of South Carolina was one of only ten Republicans in the House to vote yes on impeaching President Trump after the January 6th riot. So, Trump returned the favor by endorsing Rice’s primary opponent State Rep. Russell Fry (R) South Carolina. Fry won with 51 percent of the vote, with Rice in second place at 25 percent. Since Fry did not fall below 50 percent of the vote, there is no runoff and he is the nominee. With one big win for Trump, and one major loss, South Carolina is a standoff.
“Unsweetened Home Alabama” – Another place where the Trump endorsement is iffy, is in Alabama’s Republican U.S. Senate runoff. Trump initially endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks (R) Alabama, who egged on January 6th rioters. But the relationship soured and Trump pulled his endorsement for Brooks. Upstart Katie Britt led the primary 45 percent to 29 percent for Brooks. With neither candidate getting a clear majority, the two will now have a runoff, and Trump has moved on to endorse Britt. This is another litmus test of the “Trump factor” and how much influence he truly yields. The Alabama race remains crucial to which party controls the U.S. Senate after November. The runoff election is next Tuesday, June 21st.
“A Texas Tornado Twister” – Republicans have picked up one formerly Democrat seat in Congress. One seat may not sound like much, but remember Texas gained two new seats in the 2020 Census and the GOP-led legislature drew favorable new districts (as Democrats in power have done, too historically). My point is, Texas could mark a net gain of three House seats, which is significant, since a net gain of ten seats nationwide will depose Speaker Nancy Pelosi and put Republicans in control of the House. Florida also gained another seat, a GOP pick-up. But Ohio and West Virginia each lost House seats and that may mean a minus-2 for Republicans. Watch the trends. Again, you win a few, lose a couple, but the net gain of ten is a kingmaker!
“That Texas Race” – Maya Flores (R) is a respiratory therapist who lives in the Brownsville Texas district bordering Mexico. Tuesday night she won a special election to replace Rep. Filemon Vela (D) Texas, who resigned to practice law in a DC firm. Flores beat former Cameron County Commissioner Dan Sanchez 52 to 33 percent. But the two will face off again in November. For now, it’s a GOP gain of one, and collectively it could add up to help seize power.
“Bear Market Blues” – Okay, the markets tanked this week (after years of historic surges), but that is nothing new. The ebb and flow of the economic cycles, is admittedly unpredictable and unsettling. How does that translate politically? Well people ages 45 and over, who are planning to retire, or are already retired, may take a dim view. They represent 35 percent of the electorate. Those 65-plus also vote in higher percentages than any other American demographic. They represent 21 percent of the electorate. If they feel their retirements are in jeopardy, those in charge had better look out!
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
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