Results posted by Alaska election officials Friday solidified the leads of incumbents in statewide races for governor, U.S. House and U.S. Senate.
U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican who was censured by the Alaska Republican Party, pulled ahead of her right-wing opponent Kelly Tshibaka in the number of first-choice votes, with late-counted absentee and early votes breaking in her favor. The incumbent is on track to win reelection when ranked choice votes are tabulated by the Division of Elections on Nov. 23.
Murkowski had more than 43% of first-choice votes with nearly 265,000 ballots counted Friday night. Tshibaka, who was endorsed by the Alaska Republican Party and former President Donald Trump, had under 43%, trailing Murkowski by more than 1,600 votes.
Murkowski posted on her Twitter account a meme referencing Tshibaka’s claim that she had lost because of ranked choice voting, celebrating her first-choice vote lead. A spokesperson for her campaign declined to provide additional comments on the results.
[Current 2022 Alaska general election preliminary results]
A spokesperson for Tshibaka’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Murkowski is set to benefit from nearly 27,000 votes cast for Democrat Pat Chesbro, who was in third with 10% of first-choice votes. In the ranked choice voting tabulation, Chesbro will be eliminated and many of her votes will likely be reallocated to Murkowski based on voter preferences.
Republican Buzz Kelley was in fourth with less than 3% and would be the first candidate eliminated under ranked choice tabulation. Kelley dropped out of the race but his name remained on the ballot; Kelley endorsed Tshibaka and at least some of his more than 7,000 votes were likely to go to her.
In the U.S. House race, Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola was ahead with almost 49% of first-choice votes and in a strong position to retain the seat she won in an August special election.
In second place was Republican former Gov. Sarah Palin with less than 26%. In third was Republican Nick Begich with just over 23%. Libertarian Chris Bye was in fourth with less than 2%.
Palin is unlikely to get enough second-place votes to overtake Peltola in the ranked-choice tabulation.
With more ballots left to be counted, the incumbent was not formally celebrating her success despite her strong position.
“I think a 22-point lead is a comfortable lead but I’m certainly not accepting congratulations yet,” Peltola said in an interview on Thursday.
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Still, on her official social media accounts on Friday, she already announced which new office space she would occupy starting in the new congressional term and invited college students to apply for internships beginning in the spring of 2023.
[Palin first to sign new ballot initiative to repeal ranked choice voting]
In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy was leading with more than 50% of first-choice votes. As long as Dunleavy remains above the 50% threshold needed to win outright, he will be declared the winner of the race before ranked choice votes are taken into account.
Democratic former lawmaker Les Gara was in second with 24%. In third was independent former Gov. Bill Walker with nearly 21%. In fourth was Republican former Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor with less than 5% of the vote.
Neither Gara nor Walker — both of whom were critical of Dunleavy during their campaigns — appeared likely to coalesce enough support under ranked choice tabulation to overtake Dunleavy, given his strong lead.
The Division of Elections will conduct an additional and final ballot count on Wednesday before running a ranked choice tabulation that will decide the final outcome of several races, including ones that will determine the makeup and majority leadership of the Alaska Legislature.
