On Saturday, four political pundits addressed the membership of the Mid-Alabama Republican Club (MARC) in Vestavia Hills about the coming 2024 presidential election year.
The MARC panel included syndicated columnist former State Representative Steve Flowers (R-Troy). Flower’s columns can be read weekly here at Alabama Today. Alabama Today President and Publisher Apryl Marie Fogel served on the expert politico panel. Fogel is a former talk radio host in the Montgomery market. Rounding out the panel were Alabama Public Television’s Capital Journal host Todd Stacy and former Alabama Republican Chairman Marty Connors. Connors chairs the Alabama Center Right Group.
The panel was moderated by former State Rep. Paul DeMarco (R-Homewood). DeMarco, a prominent Birmingham attorney, is also a former MARC President and the former Chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party. DeMarco’s columns can also be read at Alabama Today.
DeMarco asked the panel about the Alabama Republican Presidential Debate scheduled for next month in Tuscaloosa. The panel was skeptical that anyone on stage could win the GOP nomination.
“I really think the debates are irrelevant,” Flowers said. “[Donald] Trump has the nomination.”
“I imagine it will be Trump and Biden,” said Fogel.
“We have some really great candidates, but does it matter?” Stacey said. “You have two candidates in Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.”
Recent national polling has President Joe Biden’s job approval at just 37% – a new all-time low for a President in their third year. More troubling for Democrats is the polling in the swing states. In recent polls, Trump leads Biden 49 to 44 in Arizona, 49 to 43 in Georgia, 48 to 43 in Michigan, 52 to 41 in Nevada, 42 to 35 in Ohio, 48 to 44 in Pennsylvania, and 45 to 37 in Texas. The only swing state where Biden is currently leading Trump is Wisconsin, where he leads Trump to 47 to 45. When the New York Times substituted Gov. Ron DeSantis for Trump, he beats Biden 48 to 44 in Wisconsin. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley leads Biden 53 to 39 in Wisconsin – showing that support for Biden is extremely soft at this point.
DeMarco asked the panelists if that polling was scaring Democrats.
“The polls are really bad looking for Biden,” said Flowers.
“I like what we are seeing in the polls,” said Fogel.
“You can see a scenario where he bows out,” Stacy said. “He makes the decision that he doesn’t want to run again, and then they get another nominee.”
“You can change horses, but it would have to be somebody who has already qualified,” Connors said.
“I think it is too late for it to be somebody else,” said Flowers.
On Tuesday, Republican Governor Tate Reeves won reelection with a margin of less than four points. Democratic Governor Andy Beshears defeated Attorney General David Cameron in Kentucky. Republicans in Virginia lost control of the General Assembly. Voters voted in favor of a pro-choice and pro-gender transition plank in their state Constitution.
DeMarco asked if Tuesday’s election results were disappointing for Republicans.
“Going into 2022, the Democrats are really on their heels,” Stacy said. “The economy is crummy. The President is crummy. Democrats should be on their heels.”
“The lessons from Ohio and Virginia are on the abortion issue,” Stacy said. “Republicans have not been adept at this.”
“Democrats say that Republicans want to take your rights away,” Stacy continued. “That is what they are going to cling to.”
Connors said that Republicans need better messaging on how much they care for the child after it is born.
“I don’t view those races as precursors to next year,” Flowers said.
“There is a lot of infighting within the Republican party,” Fogel stated.
Fogel recalled how the nation just watched the Republicans in the House of Representatives divide into different sides over who the Speaker was.
“We need to remember who the enemy is,” Fogel said.
DeMarco asked if the Republican National Committee Chair, Ronna Romney McDaniel, needs to be replaced.
“I think there is a fatigue issue with her,” Connors said. “We have had three elections in a row under her where Republicans did not do well.”
“I absolutely think we need a new Party Chair,” said Fogel. “We have lost the momentum on the ground.”
“I am not sure how much it really matters,” said Stacy. “The RNC has become a lot less influential and powerful than it once was.”
The MARC steering committee announced that it has recommended that Birmingham area attorney Janey Whitney be President of the Club for 2024.
The MARC meets on the second Saturday of every month in the Vestavia Hills Public Library at 8:30 a.m.
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