With few competitive statewide races on the ballot, California’s primary election failed to draw many residents to the polls – and one expert argues the low turnout is not an anomaly, but rather another sign of the state’s failure to engage with those less inclined to participate in midterm elections.
Just over 3.6 million ballots, or about 16% of the roughly 22 million mail-in ballots sent to registered voters, have been cast in California’s primary election — but with hundreds of thousands of ballots still being processed by local election officials as of Thursday, the state’s turnout rate is certain to increase in the coming days.
Experts believe the final turnout for this year’s primary will exceed the record-low turnout seen in the state’s primary in 2014, when roughly 4.46 million people, or 25.1% of registered voters at the time, cast their ballots. Still, this year’s turnout will likely mark a significant drop from the 37% turnout of registered voters seen in the 2018 primary.
The turnout in this year’s primary also likely will be well below the voter participation seen in the attempted recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom last fall. That election, which Newsom survived in a landslide, saw 58.4% of registered voters cast a ballot.
Low turnout in California’s primaries is typical, especially in elections that lack competitive races at the top of the ballot, according to Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC. This year, the main question in California’s race for governor was who would finish second, as Newsom was on top with roughly 56% of the vote.
“The real story is that primaries were always low … In this election, without a competitive governor’s race, which usually helps drive turnout, we’re seeing particularly low turnout,” Romero said. “The numbers aren’t finalized, but they’re going to be very low no matter what.”
Turnout lower for voters of color, younger voters
Low participation in primaries is a persisting problem in California: Romero noted even the 2018 primary, which drew the highest turnout for a midterm primary in two decades, saw just 28% of eligible voters weigh in.
With California also mailing ballots to every registered voter statewide, some have chalked up the low participation to voter apathy — a characterization that Romero argues misses the broader issue.
“If we look at the totality of turnout in our primaries, something’s not right with our primary system if it’s consistently producing very low turnout, particularly midterms,” Romero said, also noting that turnout is much lower for voters of color, low-income voters and younger voters.
For example, as of the day before the primary election Tuesday, 32% of registered voters above the age of 65 had returned their ballots, while just 6% of voters between the age of 18 and 34 had done so, according to a voting analysis from Political Data Inc.
While young people usually vote at lower rates nationwide, Romero noted candidates’ outreach efforts also tend to focus on people who are more likely to vote.
“When (candidates) look at who the likely voter is to spend those campaign dollars on in a primary, they use modeling that is infused with these disparities in turnout, so they end up being less likely to do outreach to voters of color (and) young voters, and then this vicious cycle continues,” Romero said.
Beyond the campaigns’ role, Romero said the state should look at dedicating more money for local election officials to do public outreach and education. During the pandemic, the California Secretary of State’s office earmarked millions of dollars to quell public concerns about the safety of voting, but Romero said that money wasn’t there in this year’s primary.
“If the official sources were doing more outreach to connect to people, that would be helpful and I think would be welcomed by many election officials,” Romero said.
“Then, there’s bigger things like salvaging our abysmal civics education system,” she added. “A lot of young people, they see that primary ballot for the first time, and it can be overwhelming.”
Some counties reporting turnout rates below 10%
In Riverside County, turnout for the primary election sat at about 15%, about in line with the statewide turnout, though with roughly 136,000 ballots still being counted as of Thursday, the turnout rate will increase in the coming days.
Other parts of California have seen far lower turnout rates in this year’s primary, including four counties — Imperial, Kern, Mendocino and San Joaquin — that have reported turnout rates below 10%.
The low turnout has created some extremely close races: For example, in Imperial County, each race for a seat on the Imperial Irrigation District Board of Directors was within 100 votes as of Wednesday.
Meanwhile, two of California’s most prominent cities — Los Angeles and San Francisco — had major local elections on the ballot, with L.A. voters picking their next mayor and San Francisco residents deciding whether to recall embattled District Attorney Chesa Boudin.
In San Francisco, where residents approved the recall of Boudin, about 25% of registered voters cast a ballot — a figure above the statewide average, though Romero noted the city tends to have higher participation than in other parts of California.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, saw a voter turnout roughly in line with the statewide average, with 14% of registered voters casting ballots as of Tuesday, though a data tool from USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy shows turnout up to 18.6% on Thursday.
Romero said many people in Los Angeles were expecting higher turnout due to the national attention drawn by the city’s mayoral race, but her team’s precinct-level data shows many neighborhoods saw turnout rates between 5% and 10%.
“I would say that we’re probably underestimating the power of the primary system, in terms of how much of a barrier it is for voters,” Romero said.
At a statewide level, the turnout rate should become clearer in the coming weeks, as county elections offices will accept ballots postmarked by June 7 through June 14, and the Secretary of State has until July 15 to certify the results of statewide races.
In four southern California counties — Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Diego — more than 1 million ballots were still being processed as of Wednesday, according to posts from local election officials.
Those votes could still determine who finishes in the top two in some statewide races.
For example, Eric Early, a Republican candidate for attorney general, was trailing fellow GOP candidate Nathan Hochman by roughly 57,000 votes for the second spot as of Thursday. But Early said in a tweet Thursday that his campaign believe he will emerge as the top competitor against incumbent Democrat Rob Bonta once all the ballots are counted.
“Opponent and I are neck and neck,” Early said. “This will continue to next week. Stay tuned!”
Tom Coulter covers politics and can be reached at thomas.coulter@desertsun.com.
