Topline
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is hitting the campaign trail for President Joe Biden, but in recent months has made a series of eye-catching national moves that have many wondering if he’s not planning his own presidential run—possibly soon, should Biden seem vulnerable to a challenge.
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Key Facts
Among his latest headline-making moves, Newsom in June proposed a constitutional amendment that would install new federal gun controls, including universal background checks, in response to recent federal court rulings rolling back firearm restrictions.
He went on a national media blitz that included a June sit-down with Fox News host Sean Hannity, a rarity for a prominent Democrat and Newsom’s first appearance on the network since 2010.
Newsom has openly sparred with GOP presidential hopeful Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), threatening to file criminal charges against him for sending South American migrants from the border to Sacramento, requesting a federal investigation into the practice and calling DeSantis a “small, pathetic man” to Hannity.
He also set up his own political action committee, “Campaign for Democracy,” which vows on its website to “go on the road and on offense—in red states too—and take the fight to statehouses, local communities, and electoral battlegrounds to save our democracy.”
Sacramento Bee columnist Tom Philp recently cast Newsom’s political activities as a “shadow primary” campaign, the state’s former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told The Hollywood Reporter in May a Newsom presidential campaign is a “no-brainer” and Newsom’s ex-wife, former Fox News host Kimberly Guilfoyle, told conservative radio host Charlie Kirk in February he has “always wanted to be president of the United States.”
Tangent
Newsom is hardly the only Democrat who seems to be waiting in the wings for Biden’s retirement in hopes of launching their own presidential bid. Among them is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has led her state as it’s increasingly turned blue, with both chambers of the state legislature flipping to Democratic control in the 2022 midterm election for the first time since the 1980s. Whitmer, 51, hasn’t ruled out a future White House run, telling Politico over the weekend: “Might I have the fire in the belly? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know. I can’t tell you.” For now, she is firmly behind Biden and is forming a political action committee, “Fight Like Hell,” to support his reelection bid. Some in the party, including Congress members from other states, reportedly urged her to run sooner than 2028. “I think it’s time for Joe to move on,” Livonia, Michigan, Mayor Maureen Brosnan told Politico, predicting Whitmer would “be a great president.” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis are among other Democrats being floated as potential Biden successors.
Contra
While Newsom, 55, has rejected suggestions he is weighing a 2024 presidential run of his own, telling Democrats at a fundraiser in Idaho over the weekend he is “really proud of this president,” some political observers predict a Newsom White House campaign is all but inevitable, either in 2028, after his gubernatorial term ends in 2026, or in the event Biden for some reason drops out of the race. Factoring in concerns about Biden’s age, independent political consultant Daniel Schnur speculated to The Hill that Newsom could be amping up his political activity as a potential backup option to Biden if he is unable to run, but noted Newsom is undoubtedly aware “that challenging a sitting president of his own party is not going to be good for his own political prospects.”
Crucial Quote
“He’s putting in time and effort that no one else outside the White House appears to be,” California Republican consultant Rob Stutzman told the Los Angeles Times of Newsom. “He’s acting like the candidate in waiting . . . someday it may pay off for him.”
Key Background
Newsom has emerged as a key challenger among Democrats to the growing tide of right-wing policies. While meeting with local Democrats on his red-state tour, he laments a Republican-backed “rights-regression” and promises his political organization will put money into “states where freedom is most under attack.” He appeared at a fundraiser for the Democratic Governors Association in Florida in March, and in April, traveled to Alabama to commemorate the anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s death, visited a school in Arkansas, met with Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba in Mississippi and is headed to Utah this week.
Surprising Fact
Newsom has used his leftover campaign funds from his 2022 re-election to attack Republicans and boost Democrats. Last summer, he funded a seven-state billboard campaign attacking Roe v. Wade’s reversal, rolled out an ad campaign in Florida against DeSantis’s various right-wing policies and deployed ads in Texas newspapers criticizing Republican Gov. Greg Abbott for failing to enact stricter gun control measures.
What To Watch For
Biden, 80, is running for re-election amid concerns about his electability given his age and relatively low approval rating, which stands at 41%. One-third of voters polled in April by CNN/SSRS do not believe he should seek a second term and 67% do not believe he has the stamina or sharpness to effectively serve as president. So far, Biden has largely centered his campaign around his economic policies, promoting the term “Bidenomics,” to tout passage of the bipartisan infrastructure law in 2021 and better-than-expected job growth. Biden is the party’s presumptive nominee, but faces two long-shot challengers: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson.
Big Number
40%. That’s the percentage of voters who said they would cast their ballots for Newsom, compared to 39% for Trump in a hypothetical 2024 general election match-up, according to a recent YouGov-Yahoo News survey that found Newsom also leads DeSantis by three points. Newsom’s margins are similar to Biden’s, who would beat Trump 42% to 40% and DeSantis 41% to 37%, according to the poll.
Chief Critics
Republicans and conservative pundits have seized on the prospect of a Biden alternative as a way to highlight the president’s perceived weaknesses, a strategy on display during his interview with Hannity, who showed Newsom a montage of unflattering moments in Biden’s presidency, including him stumbling over his words and tripping on stage at an Air Force graduation. Newsom refused to answer directly when Hannity asked how frequently his supporters urge him to challenge Biden for the 2024 nomination. “I’m not answering,” Newsom said.
Further Reading
Biden Announces 2024 Reelection Campaign (Forbes)
Biden’s Approval Rating Falls Again Amid Concerns About Economy, Poll Finds (Forbes)
Gavin Newsom Calls DeSantis ‘Small, Pathetic Man’ For Allegedly Sending Migrants To California (Forbes)
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