We have our first (and likely only) poll of California voters ahead of the June 7 primary election, and it’s great news for Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla and Attorney General Rob Bonta, the three incumbents in the state’s three most high-profile races.
Under California’s primary rules, the top two vote-getters regardless of political party will advance to the general election. Newsom will undoubtedly finish first in the governor’s race, so the only remaining question is whether his November opponent will be Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle, endorsed by the state GOP, or author Michael Shellenberger, a no-party-preference candidate.
As we wrote earlier this week, if Dahle advances, the general election will likely not be competitive no matter how large the “red wave” is nationally. Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1 in California, and the national Republican Party is toxic to most California Democrats. In the last major red wave year (2010), former Gov. Jerry Brown easily defeated Republican Meg Whitman in the general election, and California has only gotten more Democratic in the time since.
Newsom so clearly prefers to run against Dahle he’s running ads boosting Dahle’s name recognition, and the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed the governor has a good chance of getting his wish of running against the Republican. The poll found Newsom leading the pack with support from a whopping 50% of survey respondents, Dahle in second place with 10% support and Shellenberger in third with 5% support. Nineteen percent of respondents backed other candidates on the ballot with none having more than 3% support. Sixteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.
If the poll’s findings are accurate, Shellenberger will need to win a large portion of remaining undecided voters if he wants to advance. The poll found that 9% of Democrats, 24% of Republicans and 16% of independents were undecided, so that’s the well Shellenberger must draw from.
Dahle likely advancing wasn’t the only good news for Newsom. While Shellenberger — without the albatross of an “R” next to his name on the ballot — makes him a more challenging opponent for Newsom than Dahle would be, the poll suggests Newsom may not need to sweat the author too much.
The poll found that Newsom has support from 83% of California Democrats and 46% of independents. If Shellenberger wants to dethrone Newsom, he’ll need to drive both of those figures down. It’s not an impossible task for Shellenberger, but Newsom is clearly popular among most California Democrats and will have a massive fundraising advantage over whomever his general election opponent may be.
In addition to the governor’s race, the poll brought great news for Padilla in the Senate race and Bonta in the attorney general’s race.
The poll found that Padilla will likely square off against Republican Mark Meuser in the the general election. For the same reasons Newsom is all-but-assured to wallop Dahle, Padilla is all-but-assured to wallop Meuser.
In the attorney general’s race, Bonta’s supporters have been running ads boosting pro-Trump Republican Eric Early, and it looks like that strategy will be successful. Bonta leads with 46% support and is followed by Early at 16% support, CAGOP-endorsed Nathan Hochman at 12% and no-party-preference candidate Anne Marie Schubert at 6%.
Schubert, the well-funded Sacramento County district attorney, could have been a formidable opponent for Bonta given poll numbers showing voter dissatisfaction with crime.
You can read the full poll findings from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
