California Reps. David Valadao and Mike Garcia, two Republicans running for reelection in the U.S. House, are now favored to win their respective races again, according to the latest forecast from FiveThirtyEight, a multi-award-winning political opinion poll.
Both races, which initially favored the Republican candidates but had been trending blue for weeks, switched back to favoring the GOP in recent days. FiveThirtyEight now gives Valadao, who is running in California’s 22nd District, a 55% chance to win; his odds to win were 48% as recently as Tuesday. Similarly, Garcia — who is running in California’s 27th District — now has a 56% chance of winning, while his odds just two days ago were also 48%.
FiveThirtyEight, which updates its forecasts every day, doesn’t offer an explanation as to why Valadao’s and Garcia’s chances to win increased so noticeably this week. Regardless, it may be giving Democratic leaders in Congress heartburn. The party is widely expected to lose control of the lower chamber in next month’s midterm elections and is relying on tight races in deep blue California to fall to them.
The other two competitive House races in the state are not looking good for Democrats either. Michelle Steel, another Republican, is heavily favored to win reelection in her race in California’s 45th District. John Duarte, the Republican candidate for the state’s 13th District, is currently expected to lose but has been gaining ground on his Democratic opponent in recent days.
Taken together, those four races represent some of the tightest contests in the country. Heading into October, Democrats looked like they would win three of the four, but with the sudden tide switch in Valadao’s and Garcia’s races, Democrats are now favored to win just one. There are just under four weeks to go before the midterms, and if the trends now being seen in California become apparent in close races elsewhere, Democrats could suffer massive losses.
It’s not uncommon for the ruling party to lose ground in Congress halfway through a president’s term.
Inflation has been a thorn in the side of Democrats since the prices of food and gas began to soar early this year, and since the state of the economy is often top of mind for voters in each election cycle, that may spell trouble for Democrats next month. However, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to abolish federal protections for abortion has made the midterms closer than expected in the eyes of many pollsters. That decision, coupled with a few executive orders from President Joe Biden — one that forgives some student loan debt and another that pardons past convictions for marijuana possession — may help Democrats secure a few races they might have otherwise lost.
