Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is trailing former President Donald Trump badly in most polling as he gears up for a presidential campaign that begins tonight with an official announcement on Twitter.
But for Alabama Republican officials, the 44-year-old DeSantis is very much a serious candidate who has the policy chops to topple the mighty Trump whose victories in past presidential contests were by margins over 25 percentage points, and who steamrolled over the rest of the GOP field during the 2016 primaries.
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They say nothing is etched in stone, including any notion that Trump is sailing to an easy victory during the state’s March 5, 2024, primaries held on “Super Tuesday.” Fourteen other states will hold primaries that day during an election that could foretell Democratic President Joe Biden’s likely general election opponent.
“I hear from people who say they are welcoming DeSantis in the race, and some who have said they will vote for Trump again,” said Jackie Gay, chairwoman of the Escambia County Republican Party in South Alabama. “It’s 50/50 right now.”
Michael Hoyt, chairman of the Baldwin County GOP, said he is uncertain about what is being reflected in the recent polling, but suspects DeSantis is trailing largely because he has not yet announced his candidacy.
“People in Baldwin County, as you know, are supportive of President Trump,” said Hoyt. “They voted for him in overwhelming numbers. I think they will continue to support him, however, with Governor DeSantis entering the race, a number of other candidates, it’s not a shoe-in for Trump. It will be an interesting primary season to see what happens.”
‘Oxygen in the room’
President Donald Trump, left, introduces Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during a campaign rally at the BB&T Center on Nov. 26, 2019, in Sunrise, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images/TNS)
For now, polling shows Trump trouncing DeSantis and all the other candidates in the GOP field.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls has Trump, with 53% support among likely GOP voters, leading by over 33 percentage points ahead of DeSantis, who is firmly in second place with 20.7% support.
RealClearPolitics has Trump with an even wider lead, according to its polling averages. The former president, with 56.3% support among GOP voters, is up by over 36 percentage points against DeSantis, who has slipped below 20%.
Trump also enjoys sizable advantages over DeSantis in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
There has been no recent polling of the March 5 contest in Alabama.
The rest of the field includes former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Dallas pastor Ryan Binkley, former conservative media personality Larry Elder, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
Among the group, Pence is the only one to not officially announce his candidacy.
“The majority of Republican primary voters are looking at Donald Trump and other candidates for president,” said Brent Buchanan, a Republican Party pollster based in Montgomery. “However, Donald Trump is sucking up all the oxygen in the room, which is why you’ve seen a decrease in Ron DeSantis’ ballot share but not a decrease in the favorability of his image. People vote for the familiar, and right now Donald Trump is most familiar to voters.”
‘Steady’ leadership
Indeed, Trump is the tried-and-true candidate among Alabama’s GOP.
But some conservatives believe the ex-president’s track record in the state could be an obstacle. He has alienated and bashed popular Alabama politicians before, namely former U.S. Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. And last year, he frustrated conservative supporters of U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks for rescinding an endorsement and calling the former House Freedom Caucus member “woke.”
Kevin Spriggs, a Baldwin County businessman and past Trump supporter, said some conservatives remain frustrated over Trump’s handling of the endorsements during last year’s U.S. Senate race that was won by Katie Britt. Trump originally endorsed Brooks in April 2021, only to rescind that endorsement and back Britt as she surged in the polls leading up to last year’s primary and runoff.
Brooks was among Trump’s staunchest allies in Congress following the 2020 presidential election.
CULLMAN, ALABAMA – AUGUST 21: Former U.S. President Donald Trump (R) welcomes candidate for U.S. Senate and U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) to the stage during a “Save America” rally at York Family Farms on August 21, 2021 in Cullman, Alabama. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)Getty Images
“I don’t like especially the way Trump acted and treated some conservatives like accusing Mo Brooks of going ‘woke,’” said Spriggs. “That’s an absolutely absurd and untrue statement.”
Spriggs said he supports DeSantis, and believes the GOP needs “more steady, and I guess, more predictable and well-mannered” leadership.
Claire Austin, the GOP party chairwoman in Bullock County – a small county of around 10,000 residents, and of the few reliably Democratic counties in Alabama with over 70% of its population Black – said she believes most Republicans in Alabama are supportive of the Florida governor, while Trump “still has supporters, but has had some issues.”
“I’m not sure if the term is volatile, but as Republicans, we have to put the best candidate forward to make sure we defeat Joe Biden at the end of the day,” Austin said.
DeSantis, himself, has embraced Trump’s policies, but casts himself as a younger and more electable version of the former president.
Trump was criticized for endorsing candidates who lost during last November’s elections, while DeSantis cruised to re-election victory in Florida.
“We look over at Florida and see what he has done there in taking Florida from a blue state and purple state to a solid red state and with overwhelming conservative platform … (GOP voters) appreciate the governance of Governor DeSantis,” Hoyt said.
Austin and other GOP officials say they were impressed by DeSantis when the Florida governor visited Alabama and was the featured speaker during the state GOP’s winter dinner on March 9 in Hoover.
The media was not allowed to cover the event, but Austin said it was “one of the largest crowds we’ve seen” at a state GOP event.
“He resonated with so many Alabama voters,” she said.
DeSantis’s appearance at the event helped the party raise nearly $700,000 and break attendance records with more than 1,700 at the dinner, according to previous media coverage. The previous attendance record was set in 2011.
The Alabama Republican party is not endorsing any candidates before the primary.
Rebekah Cornelison, chairwoman of the Monroe County GOP, said a separate DeSantis speech in Montgomery was also memorable among likely conservative voters, and sparked “a lot of great feedback.”
“President Trump has a huge following in Monroe County and there are people who are loyal to Mr. Trump,” she said. “But I definitely think (DeSantis) has a chance. There are just so many who don’t want to deal with the baggage he brings … I am talking about those (Republicans) outside of Monroe County.”
‘Smart road’
Jonathan Gray, a longtime GOP strategist in Mobile, said that he would be surprised to see DeSantis change much in his strategy after announcing his candidacy.
He said that DeSantis is being deliberate in comments in not alienating the conservative base that has long backed Trump.
Gray said he could see DeSantis taking advantage of the very thing that has likely contributed to Trump’s surging poll numbers: The ex-president’s mounting legal challenges.
“There is a play here for DeSantis to become the ghost candidate if something happens to Trump,” said Gray, noting that if Trump is convicted of a felony, he can no longer run for the presidency. “I think that is why you are seeing the DeSantis team not go after Trump. They don’t want to alienate the base.”
Gray said DeSantis, at his age, could also still be a plausible vice president candidate to Trump, creating a powerful general election ticket to go up against the incumbent Democratic president.
Trump and DeSantis were allies once, before DeSantis’ political profile increased while he loosened coronavirus protocols during the onset of the pandemic.
“I think DeSantis is taking the smart road,” Gray said. “I think he’s opening up himself a home Donald Trump (supporters) can come to.”
Hoyt, of Baldwin County, said he believes DeSantis’ standing among Alabama Republicans will grow following his official entrance into the 2024 presidential race.
“When he announces and there is further polling on this (race), I think he will do well in Baldwin County and do well in Alabama in general,” he said.
2016 callback?
Over 1,000 people turned out to hear Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz speak at the Daphne Civic Center as part of his “Take off with Ted Cruz Country Christmas Tour,” on Saturday Dec. 19, 2015 in Daphne, Ala. Cruz’s visit to Alabama was one of many that occurred in 2015 and 2016 ahead of the March 1, 2016, presidential primary. (file photo)
But will DeSantis’ candidacy be the 2024 version of 2016′s Ted Cruz? The Texas senator was the clear No. 2 behind Trump that year but suffered large losses in states like Alabama.
Trump won all 67 counties during Alabama’s March 1, 2016, primary.
A large GOP field was also beneficial to Trump. In Alabama, Trump won with 371,735 voters or 43.4%. Cruz finished with 180,608 votes, or 21.1%. His vote total combined with the rest of the field — which included Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Dr. Ben Carson, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich — was 484,401 votes, or more than enough to have defeated Trump.
Regina Wagner, an associate political science professor at the University of Alabama, suggested that history might be repeating itself with DeSantis in the same position as Cruz was seven years ago.
“I personally think it will be hard for anyone — DeSantis, Haley, Scott, whoever else may enter the race — to get a serious shot at victory because they are essentially dividing the non-Trump vote among each other and none of them, at least so far, is making a serious argument as to why someone who likes or at least tolerates Trump should pick them over him,” she said.
