PARTIAL ECLIPSE OF THE HEART: Solar power makes up a larger share of California’s energy supply than ever before. That makes the state’s electric grid more vulnerable to a solar eclipse like the one coming tomorrow morning.
Solar makes up 20 percent of power generated in California, according to the Energy Commission — a bigger share than in any other state. It will lose 10 million homes’ worth of electricity on Saturday as a result.
The moon will begin to wedge itself between California and the sun at 8:05 a.m., triggering a 75 percent drop in solar power compared to a normal October day. The power will start leaping back at 9:30 a.m. at 10 times its normal rate.
The steep ramps will test the grid operator’s ability to rapidly adjust, which it will need to do more often as California transitions from fossil fuels to weather-dependent renewable energy.
The brainy folks at the California Independent System Operator don’t expect any issues tomorrow. They’ve been preparing for months, and Saturday’s weather is expected to be mild, lowering demand for heating and cooling. But they’re on the hunt for keys to the state’s energy future.
California has exposed its solar infrastructure to eclipses before — most recently in 2017. But since then, the state has added a ton more — roughly 65 percent more grid-scale and 150 percent more rooftop solar, according to CAISO.
And its neighbors have added a lot of solar, too, raising the stakes and making coordination more critical.
“It’s really important to plan for the amount of uncertainty that could happen on the system, whether it be an eclipse day or it be a hurricane coming for Southern California or it be just a regular day where we have weather uncertainty,” Amber Motley, the director of CAISO’s forecasting team, told reporters Thursday.
CAISO continuously balances supply and demand on the grid. Too little power and there are blackouts. Too much, and power surges (which can also trigger blackouts).
The grid operator has told suppliers of hydropower, battery and natural gas to be ready to chip in Saturday morning, Motley said. CAISO also runs a regional energy market that will help all of the Western states manage the eclipse.
We’ll be watching to see what fills the gap — and what CAISO does with the solar when it comes back.
CAISO will publish the post-mortem, including how much the eclipse cost, in a report expected out later this year.
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HERE COMES HYDROGEN: The White House had a big announcement today. California will be getting a hydrogen hub.
“This is a big, big deal for the state,” said Gov. Gavin Newsom, who made a surprise appearance in a press conference today hosted by ARCHES, the public-private partnership tasked with developing the state’s hydrogen economy using newly awarded federal dollars.
While some of the other hubs around the country that are getting money will use fossil fuels to produce hydrogen, California’s won’t. And ARCHES has emphasized the power sector, heavy duty transportation and ports as primary targets for the fuel’s end use, as well as aviation and agriculture.
Representatives like Sen. Alex Padilla and Rep. Katie Porter celebrated. “Today’s landmark award will help promote innovation, reduce pollution, and create tens of thousands of good-paying jobs,” said Porter in a statement. SoCalGas put out a statement lauding what the award will mean for Angeles Link, its vision for a hydrogen pipeline system across the Los Angeles region.
But not everyone received the announcement as good news. Environmental and environmental justice groups put out statements calling for major changes to the way ARCHES envisions producing and using hydrogen.
“As it’s currently planned, moving forward with ARCHES could actually increase climate pollution,” said Woody Hastings from the Climate Center, of how the energy-intensive production process could increase demand on a dirty grid.
Others, like Food & Water Watch California, raised concerns about the pollution impacts of plans to produce hydrogen with biomass and to burn it at power plants or blend it with existing fossil gas. An environmental justice coalition called on the Energy Department to withhold funding until ARCHES improves its community participation protocols.
The projects now enter a more detailed development and design process, which will require broader engagement, and it could be a long road to consensus.
WHAT’S MORE: This isn’t the only money for hydrogen. California state agencies are regularly ponying up, specifically in service of medium- and heavy-duty commercial fleets.
Caltrans announced yesterday that it had signed an $80 million contract for hydrogen passenger trains that will operate mainly between Merced and Sacramento, connecting with early high-speed rail service to Bakersfield.
Next week, the Energy Commission is scheduled to award $8.5 million in grants to two companies working on new technologies — one to transfer hydrogen to and from industrial ships and one to refuel hydro-electric planes.
CLARIFYING THE RECORD: A headline in the San Francisco Standard yesterday about the latest insurer to pull out of California made it seem like the state’s new policy to keep insurers in the state is already failing.
But that’s a little misleading. CSE Insurance Group, the tiny insurer in question, made the decision to exit the U.S. insurance market and transfer its California policyholders to another company last year, according to Insurance Department spokesperson Michael Soller — well before Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara’s announcement last month that he would let companies raise their rates in exchange for a guarantee they’ll stay in disaster-prone areas.
It is still unclear, though, how much of a difference the announcement has made so far. Lara hasn’t released any specific proposals yet and has said it will take until the end of 2024 to pass rules.
“It’s hard to say who will commit to what because this is all contingent on what the regulations look like,” said Rex Frazier, the head of the Personal Insurance Federation of California.
Frazier said he didn’t know of any property insurance companies that have decided to leave the market since Lara’s announcement. But he also added that the underlying market conditions that led to insurers’ exodus haven’t changed.
He’s watching to see whether Lara will approve those insurers’ requests for rate increases, many of which are for double-digit hikes.
A DROP IN AN OCEAN: It’s official: The wet winter helped boost depleted groundwater supplies, but not enough. The conclusion comes from a semi-annual dataset released by the Department of Water Resources today.
Thirty-four percent of the wells monitored by the state saw levels increase in 2023 compared to the year prior (only 7 percent saw decreases; the rest saw no change). The areas around the San Francisco Bay, the South Coast and the Sacramento River saw the most improvement.
That hasn’t been enough to overcome long term trends driven by drought and population growth, however. Thirty-one percent of the wells have lower levels than five years ago, and 46 percent have lower levels than twenty years ago.
An even clearer picture will emerge after April 2024, when groundwater agencies have to submit their annual reports to the state.
— How bipartisan support came together to back the hydrogen hubs.
— Other Western grid operators also have everything under control with the solar eclipse.
