In the event that California faces another scorching heat wave this summer, state energy regulators said this week that residents will likely face a lower risk of rolling blackouts than in previous years.
The California Energy Commission released a report that suggests the state will have an energy surplus this summer — when the grid is historically most at risk of failure. Officials attributed the improved outlook to three key factors: more hydroelectric power due to heavy winter rainfall that raised reservoir levels, expanded battery storage and increased solar and wind power.
“This year, we predict no shortfalls under average conditions,” said Siva Gunda, vice chair of the Energy Commission. “I feel very optimistic as we move forward.”
During the hottest part of the year in September, regulators estimate the state will have a safety buffer of about 2,350 megawatts of surplus energy during average conditions. But if the state faces a heat wave on par with that of last summer or 2020, it could face a shortfall of 1,850 to 250 megawatts. A megawatt is roughly enough electricity to supply 750 homes at once.
Those estimates reflect energy demand without any conservation or other emergency measures, which the state has heavily relied on to prevent outages amid extreme weather events in the past. That’s why energy regulators are less worried about blackouts this year.
“However, it’s important to note that extremes of climate change remain a wildcard,” Gunda told reporters this week, noting that extreme heat events are likely to continue to be exacerbated by climate change. “Another extreme event like last summer could once again put the grid into vulnerable territory.”
Last year, a 10-day heat wave in California led to a record high in energy demand, as residents turned on their air conditioning to cope with dangerously high temperatures. The state’s grid operator narrowly avoided rotating power outages by pleading with residents to conserve power in the evening, when demand peaks as solar power panels go offline. That heat wave was a one in 25-year weather event, officials said.
The last time residents of the Golden State faced widespread blackouts due to an energy shortfall was in August 2020, when there were rotating outages during parts of two days due to hot weather.
Neil Millar, vice president of infrastructure and operations planning for the California Independent System Operator, which runs the state grid, agreed the state’s outlook for this summer has improved.” He said that mostly due to near-record output from hydroelectric dams and because the state has dramatically expanded battery storage capacity. The state has about 5,000 megawatts of battery storage now, compared with only 250 megawatts in 2019.
“We are also showing and expecting considerable resource improvements going into the summer,” Millar told reporters.
Reach Dustin Gardiner: dustin.gardiner@sfchronicle.com; Twitter: @dustingardiner
