The sun sets behind the San Francisco skyline during rush hour on I-580 in Oakland, Calif., on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022. (Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group)
The Bay Area and California as a whole endured yet another population decline in 2022, and the dip may mean San Jose can no longer crow about being the 10th largest city in the country.
The population of the nine-county region, which is home to about 7.55 million residents, dwindled by 0.4% — just shy of 34,000 residents, about the size of Pleasant Hill — between January 2022 and 2023 compared with 0.7% the previous year, according to estimates from the state Finance Department.
California lost 138,400 residents and now has a population of 38.94 million, for a decline of 0.4%. The shrinkage was tempered by a rebound in foreign immigration and other factors, according to the state report that explores the ongoing exodus of residents from the nation’s largest state.
While nearly tripled in 2022 compared to the previous year, it plummeted during the pandemic and is still in the process of recovering to pre-pandemic levels.
“We have seen a slowdown in immigration as a result of federal policies,” said Russell Hancock, president of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a San Jose-based think tank. “That has slowed our population growth.”
The state also saw about 21,000 fewer deaths in 2022 compared with 2021.
Still, the population decline engulfed seven of California’s 10 largest cities, including the four biggest — Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose and San Francisco. That means the decline isn’t merely isolated to certain pockets of the state, but extends to its major population centers in the Bay Area and Southern California that are plagued by high housing costs. Fresno, Sacramento and Bakersfield in the Central Valley each saw a slight uptick in residents, and many of the fastest growing cities in the state are located in more affordable locales like Lathrop and Manteca.
The rise and staying power of remote work that was ushered in by government shutdowns at the start of the coronavirus pandemic also likely has driven some people away from pricey markets.
“People are acting as their own economic agents,” Hancock said. “People found that remote work was viable. They were able to keep their exciting job in Silicon Valley but were able to live in a less expensive house outside of the Bay Area.”
On the housing front, the report does note a bright spot: statewide housing growth increased to 0.85%, the highest level since 2008, with California adding more than 123,000 net housing units. In the Bay Area, the uptick in housing stock is particularly noticeable in Alameda County, which saw 8,567 more housing units created.
Still, the new homes are just a fraction of those needed to curb the Golden State’s dire housing crisis. Estimates suggest the state needs about 2.5 million more housing units.
“The increase in the number of homes that we built is a slight positive in terms of addressing the imbalance in housing and population,” said Steve Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.
The report also suggests San Jose — which lost nearly 4,500 residents and now has a population of 959,300 — may no longer be the nation’s 10th-largest municipality. That top 10 placement might go to Austin, Texas, which, according to the World Population Review website, now has about 966,300 residents. Jacksonville, Florida also appears to have chugged past San Jose with about 963,000 residents.
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“Population decline is a wakeup call telling us to get back to the basics,” San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan said. “We need to focus on making our city cleaner and safe and simultaneously making it easier to build where it makes sense, in places like downtown and along our major transit corridors so we can build housing for working families.”
San Francisco had the largest population loss among the Bay Area’s cities, losing more than 5,300 residents for a decline of 0.6%, while Oakland lost 2,250 residents, a drop of 0.5%.
Los Angeles lost 36,600 residents, a 1% decline, while San Diego suffered a drop of 4,400 people, down 0.3%.
All nine of the Bay Area’s counties also saw their populations decline in 2022. The largest numerical decline was in Alameda County, which shed nearly 8,100 residents.
Here’s how the Bay Area’s 10 largest cities fared in terms of their current population, loss or gain, and percentage change in population in 2022 compared with 2021:
- San Jose, 959,256, down 4,489, or 0.5%
- San Francisco, 831,703, down 5,333, or 0.6%
- Oakland, 419,556, down 2,250, or 0.5%
- Fremont, 229,467, up 345, or a gain of 0.2%
- Hayward, 160,081, down 281, or 0.2%
- Sunnyvale, 156,317, down 47
- Santa Clara, 132,476, up 2,014, or 1.5%
- Berkeley, 123,562, up 374, or 0.3%
- Concord, 122,074, down 1,028, or 0.8%
Experts say the slump in population may not last, particularly in the Bay Area.
“The population loss is about to come to an end in the Bay Area,” said Levy, with the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “The death rate is lessening. Immigration will pick up with international travel increasing and fewer restrictions on travel.”
After the current economic woes abate, the region will still be in good shape, even with the current uncertainties that loom over the tech sector, which has been plagued by thousands of layoffs recently, Hancock said.
“The Silicon Valley dynamism,” he said, “is still going to be in place.”
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