Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois odds, picks and predictions

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) and Northern Illinois Huskies (6-6) meet in the Camellia Bowl Saturday at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Red Wolves secured bowl eligibility with an emphatic 77-31 win over Texas State Nov. 18. Arkansas State won 3 of its final 5 games, while covering the spread in 4 of them. The Over was 2-0 in the final 2 games, with the defense conceding 33.0 points per game (PPG).

The Huskies started 1-4 straight up (SU) and 2-3 against the spread (ATS) in their first 5 games. However, NIU came alive with 5 wins in the final 7 contests to close out the regular season, but it was just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.

The transfer portal and opt-out list isn’t large for either side. However, NIU will be without EDGE rusher George Gumbs, who tied for 2nd on the team lead with 3.5 sacks while forcing 2 fumbles. S Devin Lafayette joined him in the portal. He had a half-sack, 2 forced fumbles and 23 total tackles in 11 games. Plus, WR Kacper Rutkiewicz is out with an injury.

For Ark State, RB Zak Wallace had 556 yards and 6 TDs on the ground, but he is on the injury report with a tailbone injury. All indications are that he will play, however. LB Javante Mackey led the team with 52 solo tackles, while posting 2 sacks with a fumble recovery, but he announced he is transferring.

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Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 5:17 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Arkansas State -150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Northern Illinois +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
• Against the spread: Arkansas State -2.5 (-115) | Northern Illinois +2.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois picks and predictions

Prediction

Northern Illinois 27, Arkansas State 25

Moneyline

The pass rush might struggle a bit, but NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+125) as the slight underdog is the way to go.

The Huskies finished strong after a tough start, and the experience of QB Rocky Lombardi and punishing running of RB Antario Brown will be too much for the Red Wolves (-150) to overcome.

This will be a very close and entertaining game. It might even come down to the final possession.

Against the spread

NORTHERN ILLINOIS +2.5 (-105) is worth a look if you would like a little bit of insurance in a potentially close game. Even if Arkansas State were to win by 1 or 2 points, backing NIU would be a winning ticket.

Still, the Huskies are a better value on the moneyline at plus-money.

Over/Under

UNDER 54.5 (-105) is the lean, but play a half-unit at the most.

The Under was 4-2 in NIU’s final 6 games, including a 24-0 shutout victory at home vs. Western Michigan Nov. 14. The defense allowed 17 or fewer points in 5 of the final 7 outings, so Arkansas State will have its hands full trying to solve this underrated defensive unit.

The Red Wolves cashed the Over in the final 2 games, but the Under had a slight 4-3 edge in the final 7 games.

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