The battle over election maps in states including New York, Wisconsin and Alabama are set to play a pivotal role in the 2024 election.
A redistricting lawsuit in New York could ultimately see the creation of a whole new congressional map, while states such as Alabama and Louisiana have been focal points over battles for establishing additional majority-Black congressional districts.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin could see its entire state Legislature map redrawn, depending on how the state Supreme Court rules in a high-profile redistricting case, which could have ramifications on GOP dominance over the state Capitol.
Here are five redistricting cases that will impact 2024:
New York
Democrats are seeking to have a bipartisan commission redraw the state’s congressional maps after attempts to draw more favorable lines for the party were botched last cycle, costing them critical seats in the House.
Democrats want the Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) to create new House maps; the legal challenge comes after the IRC sought to offer several proposals for new congressional lines last year. The state Legislature ultimately created its own congressional map after the IRC deadlocked on offering a second proposal.
But the congressional lines offered by the Democratic-controlled state Legislature were tossed out by the state Court of Appeals, and a court-appointed special master ultimately created the House map that would be used in the November midterms.
The special master’s map created several awkward member-on-member primaries, including in New York’s 12th Congressional District, between then-Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.). Then-Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) was forced to run in the 10th Congressional District after then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), who served as the chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, decided to run in the 17th Congressional District.
All three Democrats lost their respective House battles in November, and Republicans flipped a handful of seats in the Empire State to help deliver a narrow GOP majority in the House.
The state Court of Appeals heard arguments over Democrats’ lawsuit for a new House map earlier this month, and a decision is likely to come by the end of the year, according to Spectrum News 1.
Wisconsin
The state Supreme Court heard arguments last week in a case over the fate of Wisconsin’s state legislative maps. A group of Democratic voters filed a lawsuit in early August challenging the maps as “unconstitutional.”
The lawsuit alleges that the maps violate the state constitution because 55 Assembly districts and 21 state Senate districts are noncontiguous, meaning there’s pockets of land that are not jointly connected to the rest of their respective districts.
Republicans currently enjoy a 22-11 majority in the state Senate and 64-35 majority in the Assembly, but the potential redrawing of the entire state legislative map could impact Republicans’ grip in the state Capitol in a key swing state.
But the lawsuit has notably gained much attention given the high court’s new 4-3 liberal majority, after liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz won her election for a vacant seat on the high court earlier this year.
During a candidate forum before the judicial elections, she called the state’s maps “rigged”; Republicans mulled impeaching the liberal justice if she didn’t recuse herself from the redistricting case, but several former justices on the state’s high court have advised against pursuing impeachment against her.
North Carolina
Republicans in the Tar Heel State scored their first win last November when they flipped the Democratic majority on the state Supreme Court.
The previous liberal majority had tossed out congressional lines submitted by the GOP-controlled state Legislature, calling them “unlawful partisan gerrymanders.” Court-appointed special masters created a House map in place for the November midterms instead that included districts currently held by seven House Republicans and seven House Democrats.
But the state’s high court reheard the case after the state Supreme Court flipped to a conservative majority, ultimately reversing course on its prior decision over the state’s election maps.
Following that decision, Republicans in the state Legislature passed new congressional maps that give the GOP an advantage in 10 House districts, with three Democratic-leaning districts and one district that’s a toss-up.
Those new congressional lines are likely to act as a buffer to any Democratic gains in states such as New York, or in southern states including Alabama or Louisiana, where Democrats are looking to pick up another majority Black district.
Alabama
The Supreme Court surprised many in June, given its conservative makeup, when it ruled that Alabama’s congressional map likely violated the Voting Rights Act.
The high court ruled in the summer that the state needed to create a second district that was majority Black or nearly so, given that 27 percent of the state’s population is Black, but the state only includes one majority-Black congressional district.
Alabama flouted that requirement, however, by keeping its majority-Black district while creating the 2nd Congressional District with only a marginally higher percentage of Black voters — a map that was ultimately tossed by a three-judge panel in September.
Instead, a court-appointed special master offered three different maps for a panel of federal judges to pick from instead. Early last month, that court picked a version that includes the majority-Black district and brings a second congressional district to 48.7 percent of the Black voting age population.
The chosen map is seen as a win for Democrats, offering them a one-seat pickup opportunity in a Southern state at a time when Republicans only narrowly control the House, though The Associated Press noted that the state is expected to continue its litigation over the maps.
Louisiana
The issue of fair representation of the state’s Black voting bloc has also been a focal point in Louisiana. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) vetoed the GOP-controlled state Legislature’s congressional maps in March 2022, arguing in a statement at the time that it “does not meet the standards set forth in the federal Voting Rights Act.”
The state Legislature overrode the governor’s veto, however, spurring a lawsuit over the maps. A federal judge in June of that year ruled “that Plaintiffs are substantially likely to prevail on the merits of their claims brought under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act” and pushed for a second majority Black district to be established.
The Supreme Court revived that map ahead of the November midterms and paused the decision on an order from the federal judge to create a second majority-Black district, as a separate case in Alabama played out. The Supreme Court later remanded the case back to 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, after separately ruling that Alabama’s maps likely violated the Voting Rights Act.
The federal appeals court noted earlier this month that the state Legislature needed to create a new map by mid-January, though it comes as Edwards, a Democrat, is set to leave office and will be succeeded by Republican Gov.-elect Jeff Landry.
