*Senate Majority PAC (Democratic super PAC): Pennsylvania ($26 million); Georgia ($24.7 million); Arizona ($22.3 million); Nevada ($21 million); Wisconsin ($12.6 million)
Let’s break down that one-third of a billion dollars (!) in ad spending a bit.
Democratic incumbents are running in Arizona (Sen. Mark Kelly), Georgia (Sen. Raphael Warnock) and Nevada (Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto). Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, and Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection, are the only two Republican-held seats the Democratic groups have on their initial target list.
The two Republican groups — the NRSC and SLF — are spending in North Carolina, the only state Donald Trump won in 2020 among this group (aside from Alaska — more on that below). GOP Sen. Richard Burr is retiring, leaving the seat vacant.
And just the party committees — the NRSC and DSCC — made ad reservations in New Hampshire, a state Biden won where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is seeking another term.
The amount of money these groups spend and where they choose to spend it can — and almost certainly will — change between now and November. As more primaries occur, unexpectedly strong or weak nominees could emerge, moving races up or down the priority list.
But given that Republicans need only a net gain of one seat to flip the chamber, and that the states listed here have also been key battlegrounds in recent elections, these are the races that will be at the core of the fight for the Senate majority.
The Point: There will be plenty of bluster from both parties in the coming months about the state of play in the midterms. As the adage goes, follow the money.