Eric Sondermann
The idealist would say: “Look at all those dedicated Denverites willing to step forward for tough duty.”
The cynic would counter: “Is it any surprise that so many would throw their hat in the ring when taxpayers are footing a large chunk of the bill?”
Whether you are a sentimentalist or somewhat more hard-bitten, two realities of the race for Denver mayor of Denver are paramount. First, the election is coming quickly. Election Day is but ten weeks away with voters receiving their ballot in the mail just seven weeks from now. Second, the number of candidates is huge.
As of this writing, the count is 27 wannabe mayors. By the time you read this, a few may have fallen by the wayside, having missed the filing deadline or thought better of it.
Clearly, not all candidates are equal. In my assessment, nine candidates, at most, are waging serious efforts and have some plausible hope of winning the prize. The others may be engaged in flights of fancy, or simply seek to be part of the dialogue, or are in pursuit of some other plum.
It is hardly going out on the limb to predict that Denver’s next chief executive will be named Brough, Calderon, Hansen, Herod, Johnston, Ortega, Rodriguez, Rougeot or Spearman. To be clear, Rougeot is included only because he is the lone Republican of significance and is rumored to be ready to self-finance to the tune of seven digits.
Whomever emerges victorious in the inevitable runoff election come June will inherit quite the list of imposing challenges. Andrew Hudson, former press secretary to Mayor Wellington Webb, set the context: “We got into a sweet spot for many years of the city being defined by its possibilities, opportunities, energy, fun and excitement. Now, we are a city defined by its massive problems.”
Denver voters, whatever their ideological leaning or rooting interest, are in an anxious mood. An opening question for most pollsters goes, “Do you think Denver is headed in the right direction or is it off on the wrong track?“ Care to guess which perception overwhelms?
Homelessness seems rampant. Though for most voters, the concern is less about those couch-surfing while in a temporary economic distress than about the ever-present encampments filled by people deep into addiction or mental illness and resisting any form of meaningful treatment.
Using posts on the Nextdoor web site as but one measure, security and public safety feel increasingly tenuous with widespread fears about everything from violent crime to auto theft to porch piracy. Denver’s police force continues to be seriously understaffed.
For a visual symbol of this mayoral race, think of a Venn diagram. As candidates look to cobble together pieces of this constituency and that, no one has much clear running room. The overlap runs in all directions and complicates the path for every entrant.
Leslie Herod wants to be the progressive candidate, but she shares that crowd with Lisa Calderon and Debbie Ortega, who is fast becoming the union favorite.
Former Chamber head Kelly Brough wants to coalesce the business and civic establishment, but Trini Rodriguez, Mike Johnston and perhaps Kwame Spearman are bidding there, too. Chris Hansen sells himself as the climate warrior, but who among this crew will not echo those views?
Herod would like to be the Black candidate, but now Spearman has entered. Ortega’s effort to be the Hispanic candidate is complicated by Calderon and Rodriguez. Of course, such categorization is an implicit insult to those communities in presuming that race or ethnicity is all-determinant.
Rodriguez seeks to be the Hickenlooper-esque outsider, but Spearman is running in that same lane. Even the bracket of guys qualified by their elite education features Hansen alongside Spearman and Johnston.
The Democratic dominance of Colorado politics has spurred some of these candidacies. With virtually all high-level offices occupied by Democrats, the mayor’s office gained luster for some ambitious types who would really prefer to be senator or governor.
Denver’s Fair Election Fund, passed by voters in their infinite wisdom, has also fueled this abundance. After meeting some minimum requirements, donations for participating candidates are matched 9-to-1. Raise $50 and collect $450 from the city’s coffers.
What’s not to like about public financing, except perhaps for the feelings of someone supporting candidate Smith and wondering why her hard-earned tax dollars are going to fund candidate Jones? Along with the legitimate question of whether those millions might better fill some potholes or hire some additional cops.
Of course, no self-respecting candidate is counting on such meager dollars to fully finance a winning enterprise. Which is why all major candidates are openly talking about their IE, short for independent expenditure committee. Minus any coordination with the candidate, of course. Wink, wink.
While the big office on the third floor of City Hall is the ultimate goal, the immediate imperative for each campaign is to secure one of the two spots in the runoff. That involves some elemental math.
The dozen or more also-ran candidates are likely worth at least five percent of the vote between them. That leaves 95 percent to be split among the serious nine. Not all slices of the pie will be equal. But a showing north of 20 percent will surely secure a runoff spot, and something in the mid to high teens could do the trick.
As April nears, candidates will angle for every advantage, no matter how marginal. And every vote will truly matter.
Far from me to foretell the runoff combatants or the eventual winner. But my prediction is that this will end up as a correction election in which Denver voters pull back from some of their more liberal-minded inclinations. More of the same is not an option. West Coast cities from San Francisco to Seattle are seen as cautionary tales.
The ultimate survivor out of this monster field will be someone with sufficient Democratic credentials, but who comes across as highly pragmatic, a bit fed up and not all that sympathetic to progressive urban orthodoxies.
It’s about to get interesting. And wild.
Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for Colorado Politics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at [email protected]; follow him at @EricSondermann
