Democrat Pansing Brooks faces tough road in winning Nebraska’s 1st Congressional seat | #alaska | #politics

In her bid to become the first Democrat in decades to represent Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, Patty Pansing Brooks is seeking to defy conventional wisdom that Republicans have a lock on the seat.

Her route to victory, she says, follows parallel tracks:

Convincing Republicans and moderate voters that she is reasonable.

Capitalizing on the backlash provoked by the Supreme Court ruling that women don’t have a constitutional right to abortion by pointing to the differences between her and her opponent.

Should she find a path to victory over Rep. Mike Flood, a Republican stalwart, Pansing Brooks also would be the first woman ever to represent the district.

“We can, we will,” she said, pointing to the narrower than expected margin between her and Flood in a June special election.

Pansing Brooks finished about 5 percentage points behind Flood, a then-fellow state senator. It was easily the best performance by a Democrat in the district going back more than a decade.

Analysts say Pansing Brooks did well in June due to low voter turnout and the election occurring just days after the Supreme Court ruling. In November, higher voter turnout will favor Republicans, they say.

“It’s going to be tough for Patty Pansing Brooks to do better (in November) than she did in June,” said David Wasserman, the U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan organization that analyzes political races. “That was an ideal time for her to run.”

A Democrat hasn’t filled the seat since 1967 when Clair Callan’s single term came to an end. The Cook Report doesn’t include the 1st Congressional District among the races where the general election outcome is in question.

Flood’s campaign officials draw on the analysis by Cook and other organizations in being confident that the seat will remain his.

“Congressman Flood doesn’t take a single vote for granted, but we know the polling and we know the district,” said Matthew L. Trail, a Flood campaign spokesman. “A Democrat, especially a liberal Democrat like Patty Pansing Brooks, is not competitive in a solidly red district like NE-01.”

The June special election, which gave Pansing Brooks and Flood a glimpse of their strengths and weaknesses, was necessary to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Jeff Fortenberry resigned. A popular nine-term Republican congressman, Fortenberry stepped down after being found guilty of three felonies related to taking illegal campaign contributions.

In the June election, about 116,000 people voted, with Flood receiving about 6,200 more votes than Pansing Brooks. Total turnout was 28.4%.

Turnout could be twice as high in the November contest, based on numbers from past midterm elections. In 2018, nearly 234,800 voted in the 1st Congressional District, which saw Fortenberry receive nearly 49,000 more votes than Democratic challenger Jessica McClure.

The district currently has just over 409,700 registered voters, according to the latest figures from the Nebraska Secretary of State’s Office. Of those, 187,247 are registered Republicans and 119,509 are registered Democrats. Another 94,760 aren’t registered with a party.

The district covers all or parts of 12 eastern Nebraska counties and includes Lincoln, Bellevue, Norfolk and Columbus.

If Pansing Brooks has a path to victory, it was opened by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Based on their legislative positions, she and Flood differ sharply.

Flood led efforts in the Legislature to restrict access to abortion and has said he doesn’t believe there should be exceptions for rape or incest, a position he has since changed.

In this year’s legislative session, as a state senator he co-sponsored a bill that would have banned abortion in Nebraska and made it a felony to provide them. The law would have allowed doctors to argue in court, as a legitimate defense, that the abortion was needed to protect the life of the mother. There was no such “affirmative defense” provision for incest or rape.

Pansing Brooks was among the lawmakers, mostly Democrats, who fought and successfully blocked the bill.

In the wake of the Supreme Court decision, Flood has said he would accept exceptions for rape and incest.

“To reach consensus on the commonsense abortion restrictions that the vast majority of Nebraskans support, Congressman Flood believes public policy should include exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother,” his campaign wrote in an email. “He has a long history of building that consensus, as he did in the Legislature with Republicans and Democrats in 2011 to ban late-term abortions.”

Pansing Brooks says her polling shows that reproductive rights outrank inflation as the top issue for voters in the district.

“It really changed what people were thinking,” she said. “(In June) we were the start of the blue wave that culminated in Kansas and went on to Sarah Palin losing in Alaska this summer.”

Voters in Kansas voted to protect access to abortion and Palin, a former Republican vice presidential candidate, was defeated by a Democrat in a special election to represent Alaska in Congress.

Pansing Brooks campaign says Flood is vulnerable on abortion, pointing to his changed position on allowing exceptions for rape and incest.

Flood describes Pansing Brooks as too radical for Nebraska, sometimes calling her Patty Pansing Pelosi, in reference to Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who has been a lightning rod for criticism by Republicans.

For his part, Flood emphasizes issues such as inflation, immigration and crime. Inflation, he notes, is at a 40-year high. There is a crisis on the nation’s southern border and crime is rising in Nebraska, he said in a recent debate. He lays these problems at the foot of the “left wing radical ideas” of Democrats like President Joe Biden and Pelosi.

Despite the activism around abortion, there likely aren’t enough votes from women and abortion rights supporters to provide the margin Pansing Brooks needs in November, said Randall Adkins, professor of political science at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

“Voting among women will be up in this voting cycle, but women already voted in higher proportion than men,” Adkins said. “She has to run a flawless campaign. … Something has to come along (to fill) her sails and carry her to victory, and right now, I don’t know what that is.”

According to the June election results, Pansing Brooks performed best in urban Lincoln, while Flood outperformed her in rural areas.

Pansing Brooks said she is intent on narrowing Flood’s showing in rural areas, solidifying her vote in the Lincoln-Lancaster County area and bringing out supporters in Sarpy County. The eastern portion of Sarpy County falls in the 1st District.

Pansing Brooks said she’s attended festivals and events in ag and rural communities and formed tasks forces on various issues so that people can “see that I’m a reasonable person, that I care.”

“This is our path to victory — making sure people know we are going to represent them,” she said.