Miller Hudson
The final act in the 2022 midterm elections will soon be behind us — either Raphael Warnock or Herschel Walker will win the right to serve as a United States senator from Georgia, with political implications both profound and trivial. For Denver voters, the never-ending political circus will swiftly move on to the mayor’s race, as only 100 days remain before ballots start arriving in mailboxes this March. More than a dozen candidates have announced an intention to run, with several more milling in the wings. No more than half will eventually launch credible campaigns, while several will struggle to secure the required 300 signatures from registered residents.
Between Christmas preparations and Congressional theatrics conducted during a lame-duck session, little public attention will be paid to Denver’s municipal races before January. There is no apparent frontrunner this year although Denver voters have demonstrated a propensity for favoring dark-horse contenders. Both Federico Peña and John Hickenlooper entered their initial campaigns with single-digit name recognition yet were able to win sweeping victories. Though statewide and federal candidates tend to perform their duties largely out of sight, mayors and city council members are more directly accountable. Crime, congestion, homelessness and trash pick-up have a way of spilling across the sidewalk from the street littering voters’ lawns.
And then there is always the question of public mood. Peña’s campaign captured the longing and aspirations of recently arrived “yuppie” voters in 1983 with its “Imagine a Great City” slogan. It turned out the cow town humble brag was ready for retirement. An election day assist in May from nine inches of heavy wet snow reminded voters of the McNichols administration’s botched handling of the 1982 Christmas blizzard. John Hickenlooper’s brewpub empire and his quirky commercials, featuring him feeding downtown parking meters for overtime violators, tickled the hipster sentiment that municipal greatness was on its way.
Subsequent to a COVID pandemic, exploding housing costs, a creeping crime wave, consumer price inflation and economic uncertainty, the mood of millennial voters is anyone’s guess. The candidate who first captures what looks more like unfocused angst than civic celebration has only 10 weeks to tell his or her story. Denver elections have been moved forward by a month to early April and Colorado’s all-mail voting shaves another few weeks from the campaign calendar. This will also be the first election in which candidates can access a voter-approved financial matching program for small donors. The scheme has been embraced by most of the announced candidates, but its impact and ultimate consequences are unpredictable. There are concerns the fund may run out of dollars subsidizing so many candidates, albeit encouraging outsiders to run was one of its intended goals.
Only two candidates can advance to the run-off election in May. Which candidates are more or less likely to make this cut is a matter of heated speculation among political activists and the chattering classes. There’s a growing perception that Mayor Michael Hancock has been phoning it into the office in recent months. Implementation of the city’s 311 information line several years ago has also had the perverse effect of cordoning the Mayor’s office away from direct conversations with residents as their concerns are shuttled directly to pertinent city agencies or departments, by-passing City Hall entirely.
A promise to revive regular “Mayor’s Office Hour” appointments for grassroots and advocacy grievances could turn more than a few heads. This next calendar year, 2023, looked like it might develop as a year of the woman at City Hall and, possibly, deliver Denver’s first female in the mayor’s office. At least three women appear to have a genuine chance of competing in the run-off. Kelly Brough, a former chief-of-staff to Mayor Hickenlooper, has spent the last decade as president of the Chamber of Commerce. She certainly has an adequate resumé for the job. However, as the Denver electorate has drifted leftward over the past 20 years, her record of support for business battles against citizen initiatives may return to haunt her candidacy. Seventheenth Street favorites always excel in the fundraising competition, but dollars rarely translate into votes.
Leslie Herod, a three-term state representative from central Denver, may possess the best one-on-one political skills of all the candidates, male or female. She has also championed a pair of successful initiative campaigns, including mental health funding, as well as progressive justice reform legislation at the Capitol. This may leave her vulnerable on crime issues, but she will be the most effective extemporaneous speaker at campaign forums and candidate debates.
Long-serving Councilwoman and city employee Debbie Ortega brings 40 years of experience to her run and will have the advantage of pointing out she won’t require “on-the-job” training. With an important endorsement from Denver Firefighters, expect her to sound the best informed and offer the most realistic policy proposals during her appearances. At least one of these women should make the run-off.
Examining the choices offered by the men in the race, state Sen. Chris Hansen packs a Ph.D. in environmental policy and seems likely to emerge as the greenest candidate in the race. It will be interesting to see whether his campaign theme, “A City that Works,” will work for him. He has also proven a progressive force at the legislature, amending the senior property tax exemption by making it portable for downsizing boomers. He can be expected to offer the most innovative and thought-provoking policy proposals. Mike Johnston, a former state senator who ran unsuccessfully for governor (and failed to sell an education-funding initiative several years earlier), narrowly pushed an affordable housing proposal across the finish line this year. He will be aided by Democratic campaign consultant Craig Hughes, who has managed Michael Bennet’s three successful U. S. Senate campaigns. Hughes knows how to win elections. Westside state Rep. Alex Valdez recently announced his entry to the contest. Relatively quiet at the Capitol, he is well liked by his colleagues.
Still lurking in the field may be a potential darkhorse, including a lone Republican, although it would be little short of a miracle to win in Denver with an R listed after your name. And then, of course, there are what Donald Rumsfeld aptly identified as “unknown unknowns.” Former police Chief Paul Pazen’s name is repeatedly mentioned. This year, hesitation will not be his friend. More likely than not, challenges like homelessness, violent and property crimes, mass shootings, acts of God or wholly unexpected events could transform themselves into crises overnight. How candidates respond in real time to such reality-based concerns will provide the voters with a measure of their readiness for the best job in Colorado politics.
Miller Hudson is a public affairs consultant and a former Colorado legislator.
