The Mixed Messages Speeding to the Election Finish Line – “The Sunday Political Brunch” | #alaska | #politics

Sunday, August 21, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

The “Brunch” is on the road again for a stretch in the key battleground state of Florida, which may help decide who controls the House, Senate, and White House. We’ll get to all the Sunshine State analysis in next week’s column. But first, this past week had all kinds of intriguing developments that could foreshadow what’s to come! Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“A Chink in Cheney’s Armor?” —   To no one’s surprise, Rep. Liz Cheney (R) lost her primary bid to Harriet Hageman, who was backed by former President Donald Trump. Cheney was one of ten House Republicans who voted for Trump’s impeachment, and she is one of only two GOP Members of Congress to sit on the January 6th Committee investigating the violent assault on the Capitol. Hageman crushed Cheney 66 to 29 percent, in a state where Trump had his highest margins of victory in 2016 and 2020. But is Cheney done? And is this a game changer? Look, Hageman will win in November, so it’s a net gain of zero in Republican efforts to take control of the House. Much of the hype on this race may be overblown because the Cheney name was involved.

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“Cheney’s Choices” – My prediction is that Liz Cheney will not go quietly into the night. She will be a force, or counterforce, in Republican politics for years to come. Currently, she’s getting blowback for suggesting a comparison between herself and President Abraham Lincoln. “Abraham Lincoln was defeated in elections for the Senate and the House before he won the most important election of all,” Cheney said. She has now lost both Senate and House races (though she won two House races in 2018 and 2020). Many interpret this as a declaration for a presidential run in 2024, but I don’t think that’s where she’s headed.

 

“Trump Smackdown” – Trump, who famously “wrestled” in WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) with friend Vince McMahon and company, is headed for a political smackdown. Cheney will remain a dogged critic in the committee hearings and elsewhere, for the remainder of her term which ends on January 3rd. Then she will likely receive book offers and a lucrative speaking tour. She’s going to continue getting a ton of press. Trump will counter heavily, but at a point certain she has the potential to be an annoying distraction. She’s like the fly you can’t get rid of at the family picnic. There will be others in the GOP nomination race, including former VP Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and former Gov. Nikki Haley, (R) South Carolina, to name a few. Yes, Trump enjoys wide GOP support now, but a crowded primary dogfight could turn the tide, even without Cheney as a candidate.

 

“Trump’s Legal Troubles” – Last week’s raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Florida continues to raise a lot of controversy, and the issue cuts both ways. Many Democrats firmly believe Trump broke the law, while many Republicans have just written this off as a partisan witch hunt. But American presidential races are often won in the “middle” with an estimated 34 percent of the country now registered as independent or non-partisan, according to the Pew Research Center. Those folks helped put Trump in the White House in 2016, but many turned to Biden in 2020. The Pew Center says 33 percent are registered as Democrats and 29 percent as Republicans. And it says when independent voters were asked which party, they “lean toward,” it was evenly split. The “middle” is likely to decide both the 2022 and 2024 elections.

 

“So Where Does this Lead?” – Look, given the tight margins I just enumerated, this year’s election can cut very close both ways. This scenario is very volatile. If Trump is indicted before Election Day 2022, there could be a backlash. What if presidential son Hunter Biden is indicted before that day? My gut says the Justice Department will not make any more major moves on either case before the election, because no matter what is done in advance, there will be accusations of partisan intent. But mid-November could be the powder-keg!

 

“Okay, It’s Not Just One Race” – The Cheney race got most of the oxygen in the room this past week. But there was also the Alaska primary, where moderate Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), faced a primary challenge, and former VP nominee Sarah Palin iss trying to make a political comeback in a crowded field for Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat. For the first time, Alaska is trying a ranked-choice system in which the top four candidates in either race advance to the November election, regardless of party. Murkowski has a slight lead over Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka in the senate race. And Palin, who was endorsed by Trump, made the top four in the House race. Both seats will be decided in November.

 

“Leaks May Be the Key” – With eleven weeks to go before the election, I suspect leaked information (fact or rumor), may attempt to play a persuasive role from both sides. There are efforts to unseal the Mar-a-Lago search warrant, to no avail so far. But keep in mind, politics is a game of numbers. In the races we just discussed, it is highly likely the Republican nominee will win the seat in Wyoming, and a Republican will win each of the two Alaska seats. Folks, that’s a net sum gain of zero for the Republicans in both chambers. Even if the incumbent fails, a fellow Republican is the favorite to keep the seat. If the GOP wants to seize control of either or both chambers, it must find the seats in other states. In the meantime, each side will probably try to leak information from the investigations it may obtain, for its own advantage.

 

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